Comment on CFTC-2026-1189, CFTC-2026-1189-0001, April, Avant

**Comment on CFTC Proposed Guidance Regarding Prediction Markets** I appreciate the Commission's recognition that prediction markets can serve legitimate economic purposes by improving price discovery, risk management, and information aggregation. I also support the recognition that climate- and weather-related event contracts can help businesses, communities, researchers, and policymakers better understand and prepare for increasing climate-related risks. As the Commission develops its framework for evaluating event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, I encourage it to expressly recognize that prediction markets addressing climate conditions, environmental resilience, agricultural impacts, energy reliability, and disaster preparedness can provide substantial public benefits. Markets that responsibly aggregate information regarding climate risks may improve planning, encourage resilience investments, and strengthen market transparency. At the same time, I urge the Commission to adopt strong safeguards protecting constitutional rights and personal privacy as prediction markets continue to evolve. First, any regulatory framework should ensure that participation in prediction markets does not become a mechanism through which individuals are effectively compelled to reveal personal information that could later be used against them in administrative, civil, or criminal proceedings. Consistent with the principles underlying the Fifth Amendment, participation in regulated financial markets should not create indirect pressures that undermine protections against compelled self-incrimination or compelled disclosure beyond what is authorized by law. Second, the Commission should establish clear limits on the use of non-public information in connection with prediction markets. As data analytics, artificial intelligence, and large-scale information aggregation become increasingly sophisticated, there is growing potential for sensitive personal information to be inferred from trading behavior or combined with external datasets in ways not anticipated by participants. The Commission should make clear that prediction markets are intended to aggregate information about events—not to facilitate the creation of hidden profiles or individualized determinations based upon non-public personal information. In particular, I encourage the Commission to adopt safeguards ensuring that: * Non-public personal information is not used to infer or determine an individual's legal rights, legal status, identity, or eligibility for government or financial decisions without appropriate legal authority, due process, and transparency. * Market surveillance practices remain narrowly tailored to legitimate regulatory objectives. * Predictive analytics do not become substitutes for individualized legal determinations where constitutional rights are implicated. * Participants receive meaningful transparency regarding what information is collected, how it is used, how long it is retained, and with whom it may be shared. As climate-related prediction markets continue to expand, maintaining public trust will require not only market integrity but also confidence that constitutional liberties and privacy rights remain fully protected. Finally, I encourage the Commission to continue distinguishing between contracts that serve legitimate economic and public-interest purposes—such as climate risk management—and contracts that Congress has authorized the Commission to prohibit as contrary to the public interest. Climate-related prediction markets have the potential to improve resilience, strengthen economic planning, and provide valuable public information while remaining consistent with the Commission's statutory mission. Thank you for considering these comments. **Disclosure Regarding Drafting Assistance** This comment was drafted with the assistance of OpenAI's ChatGPT as a writing and editing tool. I reviewed, edited, and take full responsibility for the content and views expressed in this submission. **Prompt Used** "Write a public comment on the CFTC's proposed guidance regarding prediction markets with a focus on protecting the public benefits of climate-related prediction markets while advocating for safeguards related to the Fifth Amendment protection against compelled self-incrimination, privacy protections concerning non-public information, and preventing the use of non-public information to infer or determine an individual's legal rights, legal status, identity, or eligibility for government or financial decisions without due process." **Primary Sources** * CFTC Proposed Guidance on Prediction Markets (Docket No. CFTC-2026-1189). * Commodity Exchange Act, including Section 5c(c)(5)(C) regarding event contracts. * U.S. Constitution, particularly the First, Fifth, and Fourteenth Amendments. * Publicly available information regarding climate risk, prediction markets, and constitutional principles.