Comment on CFTC-2026-1189, CFTC-2026-1189-0001, Brierly
BrierlySupportBusiness
Summary: Brierly Research, an independent ratings and research firm for event markets, supports the Commission's proposed rule on prediction markets. They argue that public-interest determinations should be based on "resolvability"—specifically the presence of clear definitions, sources, and clocks—rather than just the subject matter of the contracts. They propose a standard of independent, reproducible settlement-risk assessments based on five specific drafting safeguards to ensure contract integrity.
Brierly respectfully submits this comment in support of the Commission's proposed rule on Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations (RIN 3038-AF65). We are an independent ratings and research firm for event markets, and we maintain a coded database of 21 major 2025–26 settlement disputes representing more than $1.06 billion in reported volume. Our central point is that the best predictor of a contested settlement is not a contract's subject matter but its resolvability — whether it names a canonical resolution source, defines its operative terms, and fixes its clock. We therefore urge the Commission to organize its public-interest determinations around resolvability, and to allow a determination to reference an independent, methodology-public, and reproducible settlement-risk assessment of each contract family. Our full comment — the empirical record, the five drafting safeguards we propose, and sourced citations — is in the attached PDF. Please see the attached PDF for our complete comment.