Comment on CFTC-2026-1189, CFTC-2026-1189-0001, David, Ferguson
David FergusonOpposeIndividual
Summary: The commenter argues that prediction markets should not allow betting on pre-recorded events because insiders could use non-public information to influence bets. They liken this practice to insider trading and contend that betting on events that have already occurred is not a valid prediction market.
A pre-recorded event should not be something that people can bet money on. Insiders, though they may be bound to NDAs, can easily use the advantage of participating in a pre-recorded event, such as a reality tv/game show competition (e.g. Survivor), to direct their friends & family to place bets in prediction markets regarding that event. This is the equivalent of insider trading, making it unfair for those without such inside information. It is not a prediction market when people are betting on something that has already happened.